Modelling Population Consent
HCCM concepts for HERRICK campaign
Through Niteworks, Telaugos developed the Hybrid Conflict Context Model (HCCM) for the UK Land Warfare Centre. The HCCM condenses military judgement and human sciences into mathematical algorithms which describe the general behaviour of groups of people who have something in common, and tracks changes in attitudes and behaviour in response to military, political or economic actions by competing coalitions of Actors. It is used as a training aid during exercises, suggesting ways in which different tribes within a fictional scenario were likely to respond to the actions of the HQ, and so preparing Company HQ staff for the difficult decisions to be made during a tour of Afghanistan.
It’s concepts have been presented at a number of conferences, including the 5th IMA International Conference on Influence and Conflict; the paper accompanying that presentation has since been published in Signal, an online journal of the Sandhurst Military Academy.
HCCM applied to refugee crisis
The HCCM as it currently stands has been developed for a very specialized purpose, but its basic concepts read across to many other situations, and so the model can be ‘re-focussed’ with comparatively little effort. The diagram above illustrates how the dynamics of a refugee crisis map easily to the same basic concepts and relationships.
